Cartographic Modeling to Determine Flood Risk Areas for the Wadi Al-Zarji and Kordra Basins in Erbil Governorate Using a Multi-Criteria Analysis Method (AHP)

Abstract

Floods in recent decades have been among the most common, complex and destructive natural disasters in the world due to the significant damage they cause to the economic, social, urban and infrastructure aspects and the loss of human lives, and since the city of Erbil is located in the eastern part of the study area, which has been exposed to many floods, the last of which was in In the year 2022, these floods that the city was exposed to cause the death of 12 people, destroyed thousands of homes, and caused major damage to public projects such as power stations, roads, etc. Therefore, the research aimed to identify areas of flood risk in the study area for reducing its risks in the city by the decision makers. The AHP method, remote sensing techniques, and geographic information systems were used to determine flood risk areas based on ten variables: elevation, slope, topographic humidity index (TWI), water current impetus (SPI), water network density, and the distance between sewers. Water, rain, rock, soil, land covers and uses. The importance of each criterion was revealed through analyzing the sensitivity of all variables and giving a weight to each of them in order to build the Flood Hazard Index (FHI), as it was revealed from this index that areas with very low risk and low risk Its area was (384.5 km2) with a percentage of (22.86%) of the total area of the study area, while the area of medium-risk areas reached (529.29 km2) with a percentage of (31.47%). As for the high-risk and very high-risk areas, its area reached (767.91 km2) with a percentage of ( 45.76%) of the total area of the region.